Alabama Residential Sales Increase 28.7% in July. Alabama's July residential sales experienced a 28.7 percent increase when compared to July 2010. The last time our state's real estate market experienced positive sales growth in July when compared to the previous year was July 2007. While this is favorable news, the market must keep in mind that last July was the first month after the expiration of the home buyer tax credit and the comparative sales volume hit a cyclical low of 2,885 units.
July sales were again bolstered by a rebound in closed transactions from local markets that were previously disrupted by the natural disasters of April 27th. The relocation of displaced homeowners and the continuation of delayed closings from late April continued into July. The bounce back is apparent when reviewing sales percent change from last July in these impacted areas: Tuscaloosa (sales up 73%), Walker County (up 71%), Athens-Limestone County (up 41%), Cullman (up 37%), Decatur-Morgan County (30%), Huntsville (up 24%), and Marshall County (up 9%).
In July, Alabama residential sales outperformed the US market, which showed an increase of 21.0 percent from July 2010, according to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR). NAR also reported that the South region experienced an increase of 19.5 percent from last year.
Demand: Residential sales are seasonal and typically peak in June and as anticipated, July statewide residential sales were 1.4 percent down from the prior month (June 2011). However, this movement still reflects an improvement when compared to historical data indicating that July sales, on average ('06-'10), traditionally decrease from the month of June by 6.1 percent.
In comparison, US sales were off 3.5 percent while the South region reflected a 1.6 percent decline from June 2011.
Year-to-date through July, Alabama residential sales were 6.2 percent off last year's pace. In June, this figure was 11.3 percent and the year-over-year percent change is expected to narrow even further during the 4th quarter.
Lake Martin (up 11%), Muscle Shoals (up 9%) and Calhoun County (up 5%) experienced sales improvement versus the prior month. Baldwin County leads Alabama and its midsize market peer group in YTD sales growth of 19.6 percent from last year, while Selma (up 32%) leads the rural markets. Post-disaster sales surged in Tuscaloosa and this market now leads the state's metro markets with Mobile County closely behind in 2nd place.
Supply: Statewide housing inventory totaled 38,590 units, a decline of 8.5 percent from last July. July inventory in Alabama experienced a .5 percent increase when compared to the prior month. Historical data indicates that July inventory on average ('06-'10) traditionally increases from the month of June by 2.8 percent.
Pricing: The statewide median selling price in July was $121,236, a decrease of 5.9 percent from last July. This figure also represents a decrease of 3.6 percent when compared to the prior month. Historical data ('06-'10) indicates that the July median selling price traditionally increases from the month of June by 2.0 percent.
Encouraging news continued from the Gulf Coast. Baldwin County condo sales in July increased by 65 percent when compared to July 2010. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 25 percent from 2010.
As we move forward into the 2nd half of 2011, statistical volatility is anticipated. However, the volatility may represent more favorable percentage changes as figures will begin to be compared to last year's dismal numbers (July-Dec) that materialized as soon as the tax-credit expired on June 30, 2010.
Year-to-date, the sales pace of the 2011 Alabama real market market mirrors 2009, the period prior to the bulk of the home buyer tax credit incentives: Alabama's July residential sales experienced a 28.7 percent increase when compared to July 2010. The last time our state's real estate market experienced positive sales growth in July when compared to the previous year was July 2007. While this is favorable news, the market must keep in mind that last July was the first month after the expiration of the home buyer tax credit and the comparative sales volume hit a cyclical low of 2,885 units.
- ACRE
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